09/20/04

LC040920

This program is made possible in part by a grant from the City
of Los Angeles Cultural Affairs Department.

Val Zavala>> Tonight on Life and Times --

Can the future and the past share the same building? The fate
of the Ambassador Hotel lies in the answer.

Ken Bernstein>> Even LAUSD which wants to, we think, demolish
the Ambassador has acknowledged in all of their public documents
that it meets every possible criteria as a historic site.

Val>> And then, buy, sell or stay put? A crash course in the
Southern California housing market.

All that and more straight ahead on tonight's Life and Times.

Life and Times is made possible through the generous support of
the L.K. Whittier Foundation dedicated to improving the quality
of life by supporting innovative endeavors in the fields of
medicine, health, science and education.

And by a generous grant from Jim and Anne Rothenberg.

Val>> Preserving history or building more schools? That's the
battle and the battleground is the historic Ambassador Hotel,
site of a famous political assassination. Now the Los Angeles
Unified School Board wants to build three schools on the site
and conservationists are not happy. Philip Bruce takes us to
the place that's more than a local landmark. It's the site of a
national tragedy.

Robert Kennedy>> "My thanks to all of you and now it's on to
Chicago and let's win there."

Philip Bruce>> On that June night back in 1968, no one dreamed
what was about to happen. No one except the man with the gun
who was waiting for Bobby Kennedy. A KTLA news camera captured
the panic moments after Kennedy had fallen.

Larry Scheer>> "Kennedy has been shot along with one or two
others. They're on the ground. In the back room right now,
they're calling for a doctor. There's one doctor back there.
They need another doctor. His condition, I don't know. His
wife Ethyl is with him. That's all we can say now, but a couple
of people have been shot along with Robert Kennedy now lying on
the floor behind the Embassy Room here in the Ambassador Hotel."

Philip Bruce>> It was a scene of a thousand glittering
celebrations, but in just a few heartbeats, the Ambassador Hotel
became a crime scene. From that moment on, few spoke of it
without mentioning that horrible night. Today whatever glory
and grandeur there was is long gone. The Ambassador sits as a
sad relic from better days, fenced off and locked tight,
abandoned as a business well over a decade ago. And as it turns
out, the hotel is largely forgotten by the scores of people who
walk past every day along Wilshire. Have you ever heard of the
Ambassador Hotel?

>> No, not actually.

Philip Bruce>> You walk past that building very much?

>> Yeah, I do.

Philip Bruce>> Did you ever hear that something famous may have
happened there?

>> I guess the president or someone's brother died or
something, but that's about it.

Philip Bruce>> Do you know who it was?

>> One of the Kennedy's, I think?

Philip Bruce>> Do you know anything about the Ambassador Hotel?

>> I just know that there's ghosts up there. That's about it,
really. I heard it was haunted before, but I don't really know
anything specific.

Philip Bruce>> Do you know anything about anything famous that
may have ever happened there or any of the people who ever used
to go there before?

>> No, I really don't actually. I don't.

Philip Bruce>> Forgive those who aren't old enough to remember.
A lot has happened in the past three decades. In those years,
the old neighborhood has changed and this stretch of Wilshire is
now the heart of Los Angeles's thriving Koreatown and you have
to look hard to find the forgotten relics of the area's previous
life. Like the famous Brown Derby Restaurant replaced long ago
by a mini-mall. All that's left is part of the hat tucked away
and plastered over on a second floor perch next to a fast-food
café, and there's a good chance the Ambassador could meet a
similar fate. Did you ever hear that something historic may
have happened over there?

>> No, I can't say I have, no. I don't know.

Philip Bruce>> Bobby Kennedy? You ever hear about Bobby
Kennedy?

>> No, never.

Philip Bruce>> The sign of the times rests on the Ambassador's
front lawn. Los Angeles Unified owns the property and wants to
use it for a new school complex. The plan would preserve the
look of the old Ambassador and a few key elements, but the group
that saves so much of Los Angeles's history says that's not
enough.

Ken Bernstein>> Well, it's not an either/or choice between
preservation and having a great school at the site. In fact, we
think there is an incredible win-win opportunity to have a
better school for Los Angeles's kids by incorporating,
meaningfully and physically, the important historic Ambassador
Hotel as the centerpiece of the new school.

Philip Bruce>> This is Ken Bernstein's vision for the
Ambassador, an old hotel transformed into a gleaming new school,
a place where the former lobby becomes the core of a new
learning center, where the old glass storefronts become displays
for school trophies, guest rooms and ballrooms are reconfigured
into classrooms and study halls.

Ken Bernstein>> To be able to read "The Great Gatsby" where F.
Scott Fitzgerald regularly stayed during the winter, to practice
trumpet in the very room where Dizzy Gillespie played to a
packed house in the Cocoanut Grove or to learn about American
political history where every president from Herbert Hoover in
the 1920's to Richard Nixon in the 1970's actually stayed.

Philip Bruce>> It's a blueprint for sparing the Ambassador from
the wrecking ball by giving it a new life as a school, a place
named for the Kennedy whose life was cut short here.

Ken Bernstein>> When you go by the building, you look and you
see exterior cracks, but that is cosmetic damage. It is plaster
peeling away that's mostly water damage because the building
hasn't been maintained in fifteen years. It is in much better
shape than many other buildings that we frequently traipse
through as employees for an historic preservation organization.

Philip Bruce>> It's not the first time that Bernstein and the
Conservancy have faced tough odds. Not so many years ago, they
took on the catholic church and Cardinal Roger Mahony. Even as
bulldozers and cranes were about to dismantle St. Vibiana's
Cathedral, a flurry of last-minute legal maneuvers spared the
old building and forced the Cardinal to pick another spot for
his new cathedral.

Ken Bernstein>> And it was a win-win solution, I think, for all
concerned. The Cardinal got a new cathedral that is marvelous
and, and at the same time, the St. Vibiana's building which is
one of our few nineteenth century landmarks in this city is
about to begin rehabilitation as a performing arts center that
will be anchored by Cal State Los Angeles and be a wonderful
cultural venue for downtown Los Angeles.

Philip Bruce>> But there have been some notable losses from the
local landscape, like the Richfield Building, a grand old art
deco place that was plowed down in the late 1960's to make way
for the Arco Towers in downtown Los Angeles. In fact, the
Ambassador nearly met the same fate. Billionaire developer,
Donald Trump, owned it back then and he announced that he was
going to flatten it to make way for the world's tallest
skyscraper. At least one veteran in the neighborhood is sorry
that Trump never got to make good on that.

>> And it's too bad because it would have been a tremendous
asset to have gone ahead with what the plans were.

Philip Bruce>> With the Trump plan?

>> With the Trump plan, yeah. So now, you know, they're still
hassling and deciding and trying to figure out what to do. You
know, it's a real tragedy in my opinion of what could have been
done with a gorgeous piece of property and some good land.

Philip Bruce>> What do you think about the folks who want to
save that building?

>> I think that's nuts in my opinion, but I don't have much
sympathy for the preservationists.

Philip Bruce>> Much of the Wilshire Corridor is so hungry for
new life that it's willing to sacrifice part of its past.
That's how a beautiful but little known local landmark, the
McKinley Building, finally bit the dust over the Conservancy's
objections. The owner got the green light to bring in the
bulldozers after he promised to build something of value for the
neighborhood. It turned out to be a Sav-on drugstore. Now if
you ask people here if they're willing to sacrifice the
Ambassador for a new school, most will tell you that it seems
like a pretty good deal.

>> I think it's a good idea. They need more schools. Yeah,
they really do, especially in the inner city of Los Angeles,
they do need more schools.

Philip Bruce>> Other landmarks have survived, such as the old
Bullocks-Wilshire store now reincarnated as a law school
library, and Van de Kamp's Bakery. Once on the verge of being
flattened for a Burger King, it's now being transformed into a
community college. But critics of the Ambassador plan say it's
not cost-effective and some ask what would Bobby Kennedy have
wanted? A few friends claim he'd choose a school over a
landmark any day, but Ken Bernstein believes Los Angeles can
afford both.

Ken Bernstein>> Well, this is not a handful of sentimentalists
that are the supporters of preserving the Ambassador. This, in
fact, is probably the broadest-base coalition ever assembled in
Los Angeles in support of preservation of an important site.
It's not about the money. They're building other schools that
are more expensive.

Val>> Los Angeles Unified School District wants to build three
schools on the site, an elementary, middle and high school.
They say the community is the most overcrowded in the district
with nearly four thousand students being bused out of the area
every day.

Kcet.org is the place to look for the very latest on Life and
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Toni Guinyard>> If you're in the market to buy or sell a home,
chances are you already know that fewer and fewer people can
afford to purchase a medium priced home in the state of
California. It is a topic of interest at the UCLA Anderson
Forecast. That's where we spoke with Professor Ed Leamer to
talk about when and how real estate bubbles burst.

Edward Leamer>> Well, here in Southern California, we had
tremendous increases in home prices. Last year, it was about
twenty-five percent. The year before that, it was twenty-five
percent. At some point, we all have to worry about the prices
getting out of line. That would be what we might call a bubble.

Toni Guinyard>> Now a couple of years ago, you put out a paper
and you gave us a warning.

Edward Leamer>> Well, the title of that paper was called "Your
Home Has a P/E Ratio Too". Most people at that time had become
painfully aware of P/E ratios because they'd invested in the
stock markets, particularly dot.com companies that had
tremendous prices but hardly any earnings. It was all P and no
E.

By saying that your home has a price/earnings ratio, I was
trying to remind buyers that there should be a relationship
between the price that they pay and the service flow, the
intrinsic value that the home provides, and that means the
rental value, the implicit rental value to you or the rental
value that you could actually get in the marketplace. So when
prices are going sky high and rents are accumulating only slowly
in a region, that's a recipe for a problem in the same way that
the NASDAQ had a huge problem when prices elevated and earnings
did not.

Toni Guinyard>> In that same paper, you stated that real estate
bubbles don't burst. They slowly deflate. Explain that.

Edward Leamer>> Well, everybody has a love affair with their
home, so when their idiot neighbor sold his home or her home for
a million dollars last year, the attitude of most home owners is
"I'm not taking a penny less than that idiot got." The market
might say that it's not worth that much anymore, but people
withhold when they can't get the price that they think is just,
and it's in that withholding, the fact that you're withholding
supply from the marketplace, you tend to support the price. The
result is, you've got in a housing sector, the more volatile
swing in volume, number of home sales, and a very slow
adjustment on the price side. That's what happened here in
Southern California in the early 1990's.

Toni Guinyard>> But there is such a panic, in a sense. You
have so many people who want to sell their homes and make the
money and so many people who want to purchase homes while the
interest rates are at what they are. But you're anticipating
the Fed raises interest rates. What should we glean from that?

Edward Leamer>> Well, also two years ago, I said that I didn't
see a bursting bubble in housing in the near future because that
would have to come with rising interest rates. But now rising
interest rates are inevitable. We're going to have a rate rise
by the Federal Reserve Board announced this next week and we've
already had a significant increase in the long-term interest
rates and in mortgage rates. There is going to be more to come
like that. The reason that we had that tremendous appreciation
of homes here in Southern California and other parts of the
country is because mortgage rates have been so affordable, so
attractive. When those mortgage rates start to elevate, it's a
totally different kind of environment as far as home buying and
home selling is concerned.

Toni Guinyard>> Paint a picture for me, two years from now, the
housing market.

Edward Leamer>> We think there are basically two alternatives.
One is a relatively malign one. The key factor here is what the
Federal Reserve does with its interest rates. In the malign
scenario, inflation remains low and the Fed, recognizing that
the housing markets are very fragile, elevates interest rates
very slowly, a quarter of a percentage point now and a quarter
later and recognizing that, if they do it rapidly, they're going
to cause problems in that very critical home sector. That's a
malign outcome.

Now a malign outcome, the U.S. economy still grows great, jobs
are plentiful, incomes are growing and a debt servicing problem
that would come with rising interest rates is not a big issue
because we're working, we're getting more income and able to
afford that debt. That's the happy outcome in which the
appreciation crawls to a halt. You're going to get a drop in
volumes because it's not going to be as hot a real estate
market, but you don't have actual declines in prices.

The more malign outcome would be precipitated by further
evidence of rising inflation and Mr. Greenspan of the Federal
Reserve Board saying we're not going to let that inflation genie
out of the bottle. We're going to fight that with more rapid
increase of interest rates. If we get a very rapid increase in
both the short-term rates and the long-term rates, then we're
going to tip the U.S. economy into recession. There will be job
loss and there will be significant house price reductions as
well.

Toni Guinyard>> You know, the reality is sobering, isn't it?

Edward Leamer>> Well, we all have to pay the piper sometime.
We had a great couple of years. Home owners had a terrific
couple of years. They're basically being paid for living in
their homes. That's not likely to continue to occur.

Toni Guinyard>> How does population play into this? I found it
interesting during your conference that so much importance is
being placed on population increases and decreases.

Edward Leamer>> We try to offer two perspectives for potential
home buyers. There are those who are thinking they're going to
buy a home and turn it around in a couple of years, and those
who are thinking they're going to buy a home and stick with it
for ten years. In the first possibility, if you're thinking
about a turnaround, you're really placing a bet that the
interest rates are going to be low enough in a couple of years
when you want to sell, so the market will still be high. But if
you're buying for the long-term, you should be thinking of
totally different issues. It's not the swings up and down in
interest rates between now and the next few years. It's
basically California population growth and the building that's
going on in California that would determine the price of the
home that you're buying.

Toni Guinyard>> For the buyer, one word of advice?

Edward Leamer>> Think long-term. If you're a young couple and
you don't know whether you're going to be having to sell your
home in a couple of years from now, you're uncertain about where
you're going to be, I would not be making a home commitment. If
you think you can stay in that home for ten years, lock in that
low mortgage rate, they're still extremely attractive. Make
sure that you have a home that you really like and make sure
that you do the numbers, that you compute how much it's going to
cost you on a monthly basis. If it all adds up, that's fine and
you stick with that home. You'll be in great shape. It's just
those people who think they're going to get in and out easily
within the next couple of years. Those are the ones that ought
to rethink that decision.

Toni Guinyard>> It is all risky business, but I appreciate all
of the advice you've given us. Mr. Leamer, thank you so much
for spending a little time with Life and Times.

Edward Leamer>> It's been my pleasure. Thank you.

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Val>> Ricardo Montalban is a much-beloved actor in Hollywood.
He's made over fifty movies, but the public remembers him best
as Mr. Roarke from "Fantasy Island". Well, it turns out that
Ricardo Montalban has had a fantasy of his own and, after more
than thirty years, it is finally coming true. It is the opening
of a theatre where Latino writers, actors and directors can
bring their talents to the stage. This is the country's first
major theatrical venue, 1,100 seats, founded and named after a
Latino artist.

He was the consummate Latin lover on the big screen, but Ricardo
Montalban refused to be pigeon-holed by Hollywood stereotypes.
His versatility overcame bias and, over a career that has
spanned more than sixty years, the charismatic Mexican-born
actor went on to play everything from Khan in "Star Trek" to a
grandfather in "Spy Kids 2".

While Montalban's film and television career was unfolding, a
theatre on Vine in the heart of Hollywood was also getting cast
and re-cast. It opened in 1927 and was originally called the
Vine Street Theatre. Then in the mid-1930's, it became a venue
for radio stars called the CBS Playhouse Theatre. In 1954, it
reverted to a traditional theatre and was renamed the Huntington
Hartford. It later became the James Doolittle Theatre. Now it
seems that the parallel lives of this gracious actor and this
elegant theatre have merged. In May 2004, to much fanfare, the
restored 1,100-seat theatre was re-christened the Ricardo
Montalban Theatre.

Ricardo Montalban>> It was a dream of thirty-four years. The
dream was to have a theatre where we could train our people,
where we could become not just a Latin theatre, but a Latin
theatre that would embrace the community.

Val>> Your whole background was in film, so some people would
say why theatre? Why don't you work in Hollywood to get more
Latino movies or something? Why theatre?

Ricardo Montalban>> Because we can't afford to buy a studio
(laughter). We were lucky enough, fortunate enough, through the
generosity of one particular man who shall be nameless because
he doesn't want any credit, which is true charity, and we were
able to buy a theatre. What is the best training ground for an
actor is the theatre.

[Film Clip]

Val>> Today at the Montalban Theatre, we watched actors
rehearse a play called "Dhammashok", a tale about a great East
Indian emperor from 600 B.C. written and directed by Ruben
Polendo.

Ruben Polendo>> "So folks, just to get to our staging work, can
we take -- and again, Ryan, it's just instead of improvising..."

Val>> This is one of four presentations in the theatre's debut
festival. The Montalban Theatre is a cultural milestone. In a
city where Latinos are more than half the population, this is
the first major venue they can call their own. In the lobby, an
artist is putting the finishing touches on Montalban's portrait.
The opening of the theatre was an appropriate culmination for
the actor who has long been committed to enhancing opportunities
for Latinos. When Foundation officers suggested that the
theatre be renamed after the Emmy-award winning actor, he
balked.

Ricardo Montalban>> I said no, no, no. People will think that
I'm saying what a big shot that I am. They said, yes, but you
see what happens is that we have a Henry Fonda Theatre in
Hollywood. Wouldn't it be wonderful to have a Hispanic name so
that in the community they would read it and say, look, it can
be done, it can be done. I'm still a little bit not
embarrassed, but I feel like so many people are much more
deserving than me.

Val>> Although the emphasis will be on Latino playwrights and
themes, the theatre is committed to being inclusive. Jerry
Velasco is Executive Director of the Montalban Foundation.

Jerry Velasco>> We cannot also segregate the other individuals,
the other backgrounds, so we have to integrate these different
cultures that make the American country, the United States. We
have to integrate it and we have to show it. We have to put it
on stage.

[Film Clip]

Jerry Velasco>> For example, we have a production right now and
it has nothing to do with Latinos, but it was written by a
Latino.

Val>> Overseeing the first festival of work is Diane Rodriguez
who is also Artistic Director of the Mark Taper's Latino
Initiative. The theatre marks a coming of age for Latinos.

Diane Rodriguez>> We're not a minority in the city of Los
Angeles. I don't need to be segregated. I am very interested
in what's happening in the world and national politics and the
national scene, and we have so many professionals that have
really invested in what's happening in Los Angeles and the
nation that you're like, yes, we're at that point where we have
our own take on things. We have our own take on social issues,
so it really, really opens it up and it's a breath of fresh air.

Val>> The impact of Mexican theatre and Mexican-American
culture runs deep. A defining moment came in 1978 with the
success of "Zoot Suit". It told the story of the brutal
crackdown on Mexican-Americans in East Los Angeles during the
forties.

Jerry Velasco>> In Mexico, besides Broadway, probably the
biggest theatre movement is in Mexico City. Mexico City has
hundreds of theatres going on every night year round. All the
unions, for example, the railroad unions, the construction
unions, they all built theatres.

Val>> But the promise of "Zoot Suit" to open a cascade of
successful Latino productions did not materialize. Supporters
say the Montalban Theatre could change that.

Jerry Velasco>> We're also going to be able to influence the
future of the American theatre, but we have to play our cards
right. We also, like I said, have to make sure that the quality
is there, that the productions are there, that the diversity of
the United States is portrayed onstage.

Val>> But running a large theatre is not an easy proposition
artistically or economically.

Jerry Velasco>> As you know, theatre in itself is very
difficult. You know, it's very difficult to succeed.

Val>> For any culture.

Jerry Velasco>> For any culture, for any city. Broadway is
subsidized a lot by the city.

Diane Rodriguez>> The big plus is that the Foundation owns this
building and it creates income. So with that income, we're able
to just begin to program.

Val>> For the time being, the Montalban Theatre will offer
scaled-down performances, workshops and readings. A full-
fledged production may not come until 2005 and several more
million dollars must be raised to complete the renovation and
hire a full-time staff. But Montalban is used to dreaming big.

Ricardo Montalban>> You see, I'm an extreme optimist, I know,
an extreme optimist. But I was thirty or forty years ago an
extreme optimist and if I am able to do this, why not dream
farther?

Val>> At age eighty-three, Ricardo Montalban is plagued with
back problems, but his passion for theatre and the arts and what
it can do for a city is undeterred.

Ricardo Montalban>> And that is the dream that I have for this
theatre is that we do what's good for the community, so we can
understand one another and learn of each other because the only
way you can love anything is by knowing it. If you don't know
it, you can't love it. We're hoping that the people who come to
see this place will leave the theatre with an, ah, that was
nice. That's what I'm hoping for and it can be done. If you
can think of it, it can be done.

Val>> If you'd like to find out what's going on at the Ricardo
Montalban Theatre, just go to their website at
ricardomontalbantheatre.org. And that's our program. I'm Val
Zavala. For everyone at Life and Times, thanks for watching.
We'll see you next time.

Life and Times was made possible through the generous support of
the L.K. Whittier Foundation dedicated to improving the quality
of life by supporting innovative endeavors in the fields of
medicine, health, science and education.

And by a generous grant from Jim and Anne Rothenberg.

This program was made possible in part by a grant from the City
of Los Angeles Cultural Affairs Department.